| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Bucknell | 49-13 | 1437.8 | +0.0 | 1437.8 | 41.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Utah State | 30-49 | 1437.8 | -48.0 | 1389.8 | 64.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Boise State | 37-49 | 1389.8 | -19.0 | 1370.8 | 17.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 35-44 | 1370.8 | -52.2 | 1318.6 | 53.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Navy | 31-34 | 1318.6 | -8.9 | 1309.7 | 13.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | UNLV | 48-51 | 1309.7 | -5.3 | 1304.4 | 8.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Wyoming | 24-21 | 1304.4 | +45.5 | 1349.9 | 38.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Army | 17-20 | 1349.9 | -26.6 | 1323.3 | 24.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | San José State | 26-16 | 1323.3 | +52.1 | 1375.4 | 46.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | UConn | 16-26 | 1375.4 | -22.2 | 1353.2 | 32.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | New Mexico | 3-20 | 1353.2 | -33.0 | 1320.2 | 31.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Colorado State | 42-21 | 1320.2 | +39.4 | 1359.6 | 61.4% |